TORONTO – Russia’s war against Ukraine worries the whole world. The fear that the conflict could spread to other countries hovers in the air ever stronger. Nearly three-quarters of Canadians believe NATO allies should prepare for military intervention even though half hope for a diplomatic resolution. 

Since the early days of Russian aggression, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has expressed its solidarity with Ukraine in the form of supplies, weapons and sanctions but has not deployed troops for combat. “This is the first time people have said, ‘Give diplomacy and sanctions a chance, but be prepared for this potential military involvement,'” said Christian Bourque, Leger’s vice president in charge.
49% of Canadians still believe a diplomatic solution to the war is possible, but 64% said the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will continue for many years.

On the possibility that sanctions could bend Russia many have serious doubts. While 65% of Canadians said governments should impose tougher sanctions against Russia, even if that means higher gasoline prices for Western countries, 62% agreed that the sanctions primarily harm the Russian people and not directly Russian President Vladimir Putin. Only 35% believe that the economic war will convince Putin to retrace his steps.

What emerges from the survey is that this is a particularly felt conflict, in Europe as in the rest of the world. Canadians seem to understand that the stakes are high and they increasingly fear that this could degenerate into a world war.

As time goes on, the idea that the situation could potentially lead to a third world war grows stronger and stronger in about three-quarters of Canadians surveyed in this latest survey. When the conflict broke out at the end of February, however, 66% feared the involvement of other countries. Moreover, almost half of the people interviewed in recent days – 47% to be exact – say they believe that Putin will use nuclear weapons if the war does not go as he wishes. “The fear factor is high,” Bourque said.

Under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an attack on a NATO country is considered an attack on all NATO countries and all must contribute to restoring security.

According to the survey, about two-thirds of Canadians believe ukraine should be able to join NATO, a move that could drag allied countries into direct conflict with Russia.

For its part, Ukraine, currently considered a NATO partner, has repeatedly applied to join the treaty and even enshrined that goal in the country’s constitution in 2019.

As for who will win the conflict, 41% of respondents admit they don’t know and the remaining 59% are divided. Russia will win the war according to 27% of those who responded, while 33% believe that Ukraine will successfully drive the Russian occupiers out of its territory.

Photo by Gayatri Malhotra on Unsplash