TORONTO – Autumn and winter will be difficult. Dr. Kieran Moore, Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health says so, and the same Alberta health officials. In both provinces, in fact, cases are now on the rise. Ontario has returned to detect more than 500 new cases of Covid-19: according to data from the Ministry of Health, in fact, 531 new cases were confirmed today, compared to 485 the day before (another 17 deaths were also recorded, although 15 of them occurred months ago and were discovered through a data reconnaissance). 

Let’s see in detail the territorial distribution. Of the cases reported today, 116 are in Toronto, 63 in the Peel region, 62 in the York region, 46 in Hamilton, 29 in the Durham region and 17 in the Halton region. About 85% of cases (456) occurred in individuals who were not fully vaccinated or for whom vaccination status was unknown, while the remaining cases (75) were in fully vaccinated individuals. Of the 176 people admitted to hospital outside the ICU, only 13 are fully vaccinated.

The latest positive cases come on 26,213 tests, indicating a positive rate of 2.4%, in line with the average positive rate over the past seven days (2.45%), but up from the same time last week, when the seven-day mean was 1.85%. The seven-day average of infections has increased by 50% in the past week and now stands at 498. This means that cases are doubling every two weeks. “I’m sorry to say, but I think it’s going to be a tough autumn and winter”, said Dr. Kieran Moore.

And Alberta health officials are of the same opinion: an additional 678 new cases of Covid-19 were reported in Alberta on Wednesday (up from 407 on Tuesday), the highest increase in a single day in nearly three months. It is May 20, in fact, the last day that higher numbers have been reported, with 812 new cases discovered. With a total of 5,993 infections on Wednesday, Alberta’s active cases are approaching 6,000 just two days after exceeding 5,000. A number nine times higher than the active cases of a month ago. And more than 80% are variants, almost all of the Delta.

Numbers that led researchers to state that Alberta will see a large fourth wave of Covid-19, mainly driven by unvaccinated people and the Delta variant. Assuming the same level of restrictions currently in place continues, researchers predict more than 4,000 new cases a day by September 15, a number that’s nearly double that of the third wave.

However, thanks to vaccinations, both the number of deaths and hospitalizations should slow down. Data from Alberta, in fact, like those from other regions, show that new cases are detected mainly in people who are not vaccinated and in those who do not have both doses of the vaccine and who are much more likely to be hospitalized versus those who are not immunized. According to data from the Province, since the beginning of this year, 93.8% of Covid-19 cases have in fact been found in unvaccinated people or in those diagnosed with the disease within two weeks of the first dose, before that the vaccine had gone into action.

Photo by Graham Ruttan on Unsplash