OTTAWA – Fewer temporary foreign workers, fewer international students, fewer permanent residents. Canada “cuts” the population and does so through a Plan (the “2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan”) which, as explained today in a press release by the office of the Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, “will pause population growth in the short term to achieve well-managed, sustainable growth in the long term”. 

Growth reached exponential levels at the end of the pandemic, when the country needed a workforce for a faster economic recovery. But, according to the analysis of the Ministry of Immigration, illustrated today, the recent strong immigration would have generated excessive pressure on housing, infrastructure and social services. Hence, the decision to take a step backwards through this plan, which will lead to a marginal decline in the population of 0.2 % in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to population growth of 0.8% in 2027. But let’s see how, through the numbers presented in the plan.

As regards permanent residence, new permanent residences will be reduced from 500,000 (previously expected) to 395,000 in 2025, from 500,000 to 380,000 in 2026 and will be 365,000 in 2027. The Levels Plan also supports efforts to reduce temporary resident volumes to 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026.

In light of these numbers and the temporary reduction measures already implemented in recent months (including the ones on international students, as well as temporary foreign workers), Canada’s temporary population will decline in the coming years as significantly more temporary residents become permanent residents or they will leave Canada, more than the new ones arriving.

Specifically, compared to each previous year, according to the ministry’s calculations, there will be a temporary decline in the Canadian population of 445,901 in 2025 and 445,662 in 2026, while there will be a modest increase of 17,439 in 2027. “These changes – as explained in the press release by the ministry’s office, today – will help provinces, territories and stakeholders align their capacities and allow the population to grow at a sustainable pace as we encourage institutions to do their part in better welcoming newcomers”.

Another measure of the “2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan” includes, as we said, the transition of more temporary residents (who are already in Canada as students and workers) to permanent residents, in a percentage equal to 40% of overall admissions of permanent residents in 2025. “These residents are skilled, educated and integrated into Canadian society. They will continue to support the workforce and economy without placing additional demands on our social services because they are already established, with housing and employment” reads the note from the ministry’s office.

However, it has not been completely clarified how that 40% of new permanent residences will be “selected” among the temporary workers currently present in Canada. “Selection will be made through the Express Entry System’s ‘Canadian Experience Class’ program” was said during the IRCC press briefing today, but it was not specified how. One question, for example, is: will the score needed to be invited to apply for permanent residency be lowered or not for temporary workers currently present and already integrated in Canada? Otherwise, how will they be favored over others?

The plan is also focusing on long-term economic growth and key labour market sectors, such as health and trades: permanent resident admissions in the economic class will reach 61.7% of total admissions by 2027.

Another aspect touched upon by the plan is the strengthening of francophone communities outside of Quebec: among the overall objectives for the admission of permanent residents, francophone immigration will represent 8.5% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.

“Today’s announcement is the next step in our plan to address the evolving immigration needs of our country. While it’s clear our economy needs newcomers, we see the pressures facing our country, and we must adapt our policies accordingly. These changes will make immigration work for our country so that everyone has access to the quality jobs, homes and supports they need to thrive. We have listened to Canadians, and we will continue to protect the integrity of our system and grow our population responsibly” Minister Marc Miller said today after the presentation of the plan.

More details here: Government of Canada reduces immigration

… and here: 2024 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration

In the pic above, the federal Minister for Immigration, Marc Miller (photo from his Twitter-X page / @MarcMillerVM)