TORONTO – The third week of the election campaign continues along the lines of the second one. The Conservative Party, having leapfrogged the Liberals in their nationwide voting intentions and consolidated the lead, now also overtakes the distribution of seats in the House of Commons based on the latest projections. To certify the reversal of the balance of power also in the individual districts is the new elaboration presented by 338canada.com, the specialized portal that aggregates and analyzes the latest demoscopic surveys carried out on a national scale. Right now the party led by Erin O’Toole, strong of 33.5 percent of voting intentions, should win at least 142 electoral districts, with a prospect of growth of another 37 constituencies. 

The Liberal Party led by outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is projected to win in 137 federal constituencies, with a prospect of growth in another 43 ridings. The figure is quite significant if we consider the fact that until now, despite the difficulties recorded in individual voting intentions, the Liberals had always been ahead in the distribution of seats in the House. The trend recorded in the last ten days speaks of a Conservative Party on the rise a bit throughout the country, with a corresponding decline in the liberals that takes on worrying dimensions especially in Ontario, where there are 121 of the 338 seats at the federal level at stake.

In this province until a few days ago the Liberal Party had been able to buffer the situation and, unlike other provinces, the polls did not indicate the liberals in free fall: indeed, the advantage over the conservatives was always in double digits. In just over a week the provincial political geography has profoundly changed and right now the two parties are, according to 338canada.com, paired at around 35 percent, with the grits retaining a 0.2 percent advantage over the Tories.

At the level of distribution of seats we are facing a real political earthquake compared to the 2019 electoral consultation. Two years ago in Ontario Trudeau’s party was able to win 79 of the 121 seats at stake, the Conservatives did not go beyond 36 seats and the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh won in just 6 constituencies.
According to projectionsmade by338canada.com, at this moment the Liberals would win only in 57 riding, with the net loss of 22 districts. O’Toole’s party, on the other hand, would win in 52 constituencies, an increase from the 2019 elections of 16 constituencies. Even the Neo-Democrats would be able to gnaw support for the outgoing prime minister, doubling the number of deputies elected in Ontario with victory in 12 constituencies.

The general retreat of the Liberal Party in Ontario is a worrying wake-up call for Trudeau, who must absolutely find the right formula to reverse the trajectory of the polls and turn the game in this election campaign. At the moment the only positive signs come from Quebec, where not only there are no decreases in voting intentions, but there is even a positive growth.

In the French-speaking province, the Liberals stand at 41.8 percent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 23 percent, while the Conservatives do not go beyond 11.6 percent, with the NDP standing at 1.2 percent.

These balance of power, according to 338canada.com, would translate into 42 seats for Trudeau’s party (plus 7 compared to the 35 won just two years ago), 22 seats for the blockers (minus 10 compared to 2019), 13 seats for O’Toole’s party (plus 3) and 1 seat for the NDP.

Meanwhile, there is a generalized discontent in Canada for these ancityped elections, called in the middle of the pandemic with the contrary opinion of all the opposition parties. According to a poll published today by Ipsos, 58 percent of Canadians believe it is wrong to go and vote during the Covid pandemic. 12 percent of respondents said they wanted to vote by mail, while 21 percent were still undecided.

This also casts another shadow over Trudeau’s questionable decision to force his hand and return to the polls two years after the last election.