TORONTO – Three unknowns make the road to the confirmation of Justin Trudeau at the helm of the country tortuous. Three unforeseen situations, which evidently had not been taken into account by the outgoing prime minister and his entourage when the decision was made to pull the plug on the government and send the country back to the polls. 

The first unknown factor is Afghanistan. Within a few weeks, the Taliban regained control of the country, following the withdrawal of NATO forces and the collapse of military forces loyal to the pro-Western government. An unexpected development, which has provoked a generalized state of emergency that will have its aftermath even in this election campaign. Today, four ministers of the outgoing government – that of Immigration Marco Mendicino, that of Defense Harjit Sajjan and that of, the head of Foreign Affairs Marc Garneau and the Minister for Women and Gender Equality Maryam Monsef – interrupted their respective campaigns in their electoral districts to participate to provide an update on the Afghan situation.

The Canadian government has committed to hosting 20 thousand refugees while the situation in Kabul is rapidly precipitating. The Liberal executive is therefore facing the unexpected emergency right in the middle of the Canadians campaign at the polls on September 20th.

The second unknown, which was probably underestimated when it was decided to call early elections, is that of the Covid-19 pandemic. Last month the epidemiological picture of the country was very different from the current one. The third wave of the pandemic had now lost its driving force, restrictions had been relaxed in all provinces, new cases – as well as hospitalizations in intensive care and deaths – were strongly declining and the vaccination campaign had achieved unexpected results.

Also in this case, we are faced with a profoundly changed picture: the contagion has returned to run a little throughout Canada, with Ontario that in the last three days has seen the highest values since last June, virologists tell us that the fourth wave has already begun and – even more alarmingly – hospitalizations and intensive care continue to grow. In short, the pandemic is far from over.

The third unknown, finally, comes to us from the polls. Until June-July, the Liberal Party enjoyed a distinct advantage in voting intentions. A level of support, towards the party of Justin Trudeau, which instead in recent weeks has begun to shrink.

According to the latest poll, that of Nanos, in the week from 12 to 20 August, the Liberals lost almost 4 percentage points, falling to 34.2 percent, while the Conservatives of Erin O’Toole rose to 32.3 percent: we are close to statistical parity, in any case very far from any claim for the grits to win the absolute majority of seats at stake in this electoral round.