1. Justin Trudeau will prorogue Parliament, then advise His party of his resignation as leader, effective the day after whatever process emerges may produce a replacement. Despite wishful thinking by those who claim otherwise, Parliament has no authority over the structural constructs of individual political organizations. 

In 2008, Stephen Harper proved that a strong-willed semi-tyrant of a leader can stare-down “coalitions” of Parliamentarians and defy “constitutional” practices, even after losing an election and wait out opposition parties. With all due respect to tactics involving House of Commons Committee decisions, Committees are creatures of the House – they need a mandate, not the other way around – even if the usual “academic” with background in jurisprudence is always available to provide “cover”, for a price.

In this instance, the “crisis” is purely internal to the Liberal Party. As a member of caucus during the short-lived era of the Ignatieff cabal reminded me, “we’ve seen this movie before, it does not end well”. We are witnessing an “implosion” brought on by hubris. The same people around Ignatieff are running the Trudeau show today – they also ran the Ontario Liberal Party prior to the emergence of the Conservatives under Doug Ford.

2. As our editor-in-chief, Francesco Veronesi, opined last week, Trudeau’s grand vision for Canada, founded on the “plan and ideology” of the rainbow and reconciliation with First Nations is at risk of collapsing along with him. Voices expressing a difference of opinion on the inclusivity and practical outcomes for the extravagant amounts in the multiple Billions of dollars expended, as per the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s factual indication of dollar amounts, may now increase given that Donald Trump is poised for the swearing in.

3. As if on cue, the chief bureaucrat tasked with Canada’s preparedness to move a G-7 Agenda in our capacity as Chair for this year meeting in Alberta, announced that the position would allow us to promote Canada’s priority in Pandemic Preparedness and Climate Change. If there was a mention of American threats on tariffs (economy), military expenditures and foreign policy (our sovereignty), it would have been lost in the rhetoric reflecting the current Government’s (Trudeau) priorities.

4. Harper’s star was on the ascendency, his caucus unified behind him. Trudeau’s fortunes point in the opposite direction and no regional caucus supports him. His government’s priorities have been remarkably indifferent to strategies targeting ethnic/religious communities for integration into a Canadian environment – Census 2021 indicated 24% of the population functions in a language other than English or French. In the last two years, at least, Trudeau’s government has spent zero dollars advertising government programs via third language publications. To whom will he turn for a sympathetic ear?

Nonetheless, Justin Trudeau remains the master of his own destiny, and his party’s. All signs point to him acting this coming week to ward off greater complications and turbulence. The Conservatives are already preparing and airing attack-ads making members of his Cabinet appear to be “wackos”. That former colleague of mine is bang on correct: “It does not end well”.