TORONTO – A majority government of the Progressive Conservative, just like in 2018. This is the most likely scenario, six weeks before the provincial vote, according to the projections of the seats elaborated by the specialized website 338canada.com, which analyzes the level of consensus of the parties in the race in view of the appointment at the polls on June 2nd. According to the data examined, if it were to vote at this time the party led by outgoing Prime Minister Doug Ford would win 71 of the 124 seats available, well above the 63 necessary to guarantee an absolute majority of deputies in Queen’s Park: four years ago the Progressive Conservative won in 76 constituencies. 

The state of electoral health of the main opposition party, the NDP, is very different, which after the good results of the last consultation – where it was able to elect 40 provincial deputies – seems destined to a significant decline both in the popular vote and in the consequent distribution of seats in the legislative assembly of Ontario.

Right now the neo-Democrats are in the lead only in 24 districts and this is also due to the progressive strengthening of the Liberal Party led by Steven Del Duca: after the collapse of 2018, when the party went from an absolute majority of seats to just seven elected representatives, the grits should recover, without however being able to worry the current majority party.

According to 338canada.com, if the Liberals were to vote right now, they would win in 28 districts, becoming the de facto official opposition party in Queen’s Park. Finally, the Greens would confirm the only Member currently in office.

Will the balance of power outlined in the latest elaboration of 338canada.com change in the coming weeks or are they destined to crystallize and remain unchanged at the next elections? At this moment – the study under consideration tells us – it is very difficult that between now and June 2 a political earthquake can occur capable of undermining the relations and balances between the parties that have been consolidated in recent months.

In fact, in the analysis we find that of the 71 districts where the conservatives are in clear advantage, only in 12 the margin with the second party is equal to or less than 3 percent. In the worst-case scenario for the outgoing prime minister, the Conservatives will still have a relative majority of seats at 59, while neither the Liberals nor the Neo-Democrats will be able to have a numerical strength greater than Queen’s Park. In the best possible scenario with the current numbers, 338canada.com tells us, the Liberal Party would reach 48 deputies while the NDP would not go beyond 37 seats. And this – the analysis continues – only if the two opposition parties were to make the en plein in all the districts where the margin between them and the conservative candidate is still somehow bridgeable.

In any case, the game is all to be played. The official election campaign will only begin in May and the margins to recover would still be there

But to worry the outgoing prime minister, the NDP and the Liberals must shift gears and aim for a breakthrough. Otherwise it will be another four years of Ford government.