As election day draws near, the political landscape in Etobicoke-Lakeshore is poised for a change in representation. Created in 1987, the riding is situated along the northern shore of Lake Ontario and includes the communities of Alderwood, Long Branch, Mimico and Humber Bay.

The constituency has been a popular place for immigrants, particularly among Europeans, to set down roots. For instance, 11,585 constituents self-identify as Italian Canadian (as per the 2016 Census, the most recent data available. That represents 9% of the district’s population and one of the largest ethnic groups that originate from Europe.

Historically, the district has been represented by all three main political parities. However, since 1995 it has shifted between the Liberals and the PC.

Christine Hogarth, the incumbent, seeks her second term in office and to retain the seat for the PC. In 2018, she took the seat from the Liberals when she won with 38% support of the electorate (22,626 votes). The NDP took 32%, but the PC’s margin of victory was 3,225 votes. That year, the Liberals managed 24%.

When contacted, Hogarth told the Corriere: “I am up for the task to continue to fight for our amazing community”, and, “to ensure that Etobicoke-Lakeshore prospers”. She shared her Party’s plan that focuses on “working for workers, rebuilding Ontario’s economy and keeping costs down”. She also pointed to transit infrastructure investments for projects like the Ontario Line, the Mimico Go Station and completing the Kipling Hub.

This time around, Hogarth’s closest challenger is candidate Lee Fairclough. She appears to be building support for the Liberals and seems poised to take the riding from the PC.

Meanwhile, candidate Farheen Alim aims to garner more support for the NDP. She and Fairclough did not respond to our request for input as at the time of going to print.

So far, it would appear electors are ready for a change in the riding. According to the most recent projections by 338Canada.com (May 18), the Liberals are in the lead at 36%. The PC trail close at 35%, just one point behind, followed by the NDP at 22%. (See graph at the top of the article)

District map: Elections Ontario. Inset: Wikipedia, Ajbutler