TORONTO – Seven in ten Canadians (69%) think Justin Trudeau should step down as leader of the Liberal Party and as Prime Minister of Canada next year, before the federal elections scheduled for 2025. This figure stands at 81% among Alberta’s Canadians (compared to 73% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 70% in Ontario, 66% in British Columbia, 63% in Quebec and 62% in the Atlantic provinces). Only 31% believe Trudeau should remain Prime Minister and Liberal leader. 

While most Canadians think Trudeau should resign, they are skeptical that he will. Just over a quarter (28%) think it is likely that Trudeau will step down as leader of the Liberal Party in 2024, while 63% think this outcome is unlikely, with a third of Canadians saying it is very unlikely. Canadians most skeptical of Trudeau’s resignation include those in Atlantic Canada (76%) and Alberta (71%), as well as older Canadians aged over 55 (72%). Meanwhile, most in the 18-34 age group believe Trudeau’s resignation is a likely outcome (38%). Regardless of whether Trudeau stays or goes, six in ten Canadians (59%) think a federal election is likely to be called in 2024.

If elections are held in 2024 and Trudeau is still leading the party, recent polls suggest that liberals would probably suffer a resounding defeat. And this is now confirmed by all the polls and studies such as that of Nanos Research, which published the latest monthly projections: support for the Conservatives has been increasing sharply since the summer and if elections were held today, the Tories would obtain at least 166 seats compared to the Liberals’ 53, with a tight race for 76 seats which would however see the Conservatives largely favoured. The projections, intended to show how popular support for a party would translate into seats in the House of Commons, have the NDP at 20 seats, the Greens at 1 and the Bloc Quebecois at 22. “If the election were held today, ( the Conservatives) would win,” Nanos Research President Nik Nanos told CTV.

The news becomes even grimmer for the Liberals when you consider the changes in the seat projection from the 2021 federal election. The changes to the Nanos seat projection show that the Liberals would lose 64 seats compared to the 2021 election, while the Conservatives would gain 61. “Most of this (happens) in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where basically it’s a Liberal decline and a Conservative resurgence” Nanos said, adding that “there are still 76 seats that are too close to be called up in seat projections, so maybe there’s a little bit of wiggle room. But the trajectory is pretty clear at this particular point in time and the swings that have taken place, especially in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, are very clear”.

The Nanos study also examines the performance of federal parties in terms of electoral support and the “personal brand” of their leaders, comparing the latest December numbers with the 2021 elections. Well, the Liberals’ current numbers are down by 7 % compared to 2021, while the Conservatives are up 6%. The NDP and Greens are up a few points, while the Bloc and People’s Party are down 3% each. This trend becomes more apparent when you look at the “favorite prime minister” that reflects Canadians’ views of party leaders: Trudeau is down as much as 10 percentage points since securing his third general election victory in 2021, although not the majority victory he was hoping for. Poilievre, meanwhile, is doing five points better than his predecessor compared to Erin O’Toole who led the Conservatives in the last election. Bottom line: Right now Pierre Poilievre (with 32.8% approval) has about 12 points ahead of Justin Trudeau (whose approval is at 20.9%).

In the pic above, Justin Trudeau on a video published on Twitter X – @JustinTrudeau