New Canadian Politics poll; a look at the Conservative Party’s challenge: growing support

The Conservative Convention began on Thursday, and an update on Conservative Party supporters and the path to victory is available at https://abacusdata.ca/conservative-party-canada-gap/.
Summary:
- The federal Liberals lead the Conservatives by four seats, with the NDP remaining unchanged.
- Liberals have 33 seats, Conservatives have 29, and the NDP has one.
- On a regional basis, we see a close three-way race in British Columbia, broad Conservative leads in the Prairies, a 13-point Liberal lead in Ontario, a 7-point Liberal lead over the PQ in Quebec, and a 21-point Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada.
- “Essentially nothing has changed since the last survey, indicating that we may be entering a period in which political opinions remain stable, particularly as the risk of a third COVID wave rises and the public focuses on the consequences,” Says David Coletto, Abacus Data
Among these figures, a few points stand out:
- In November, 21% of undecided voters said they would vote for either the NDP (15%) or the Greens (15%). (5 percent ).
- It is now 27 percent (NDP 19 percent, Green 8 percent ).
- This should bother the Liberals because a weakened Conservative Party hasn’t translated into a higher Liberal vote share.
- Younger Canadians (48 percent will vote NDP or Green), a group vital to a potential Liberal majority, are disproportionately supportive of the Greens and NDP.
- Second, unlike in 2019, the Conservatives will not be able to rely on an optimistic base. Given that the Conservative vote share has steadily declined in recent months, from 32% to 29%, the party will need an energized base to compensate for its weakness among the general electorate.
- The issue with that approach is that it needs people to hate the incumbents; far fewer people who are upset with Mr. Trudeau and far fewer who are actively opposed to the Liberals being voted out.
Source — David Coletto, Abacus Data
https://abacusdata.ca/canada-mood-tentative-as-spring-arrives
https://abacusdata.ca/canada-mood-tentative-as-spring-arrives