TORONTO – Still negative signals for Justin Trudeau in this first week of campaigning. The outcome of the vote in Nova Scotia and the new Abacus poll highlight elements that the Liberal leader should not underestimate in view of the appointment at the polls on September 20th. In the Atlantic province, the Conservative Pogressive led by prime ministerial candidate Tim Houston won the local elections, winning an absolute majority in the provincial assembly, almost doubling the number of deputies. The Liberal Party, which under Stephen McNeil first and prime ministerial candidate Iain Rankin then led the province during the Covid-19 pandemic, suffered a completely unexpected blow, winning just 17 seats. 

A meltdown that, although it occurred in a limited context such as Nova Scotia, offers numerous points of analysis. First of all, the electorate has turned its back on the outgoing government, deeming what has been done to combat the pandemic to be insufficient. Houston, however, has presented a program that included large expenses for the health sector and for long-term care homes. The Liberal Party considered this vote as a kind of referendum on government action against Covid, the same political operation made at the national level by Trudeau. This is a risky political strategy, which could lead to unpredictable outcomes.

And to confirm how fickle the moods of the Canadian electorate are comes yet another poll on voting intentions, after the three published on Tuesday. According to the snapshot taken by Abacus, the Liberals can still enjoy a five percentage point lead over the Conservatives, a margin identical to that recorded by the Polls of Leger and Ipsos. But according to Abacus, in the last seven days the level of support for the party led by the outgoing prime minister has collapsed by four percentage points, from 37 to 33 percent.

The drop in voting intentions came in the week when Trudeau opened the crisis and obtained from the governor-general the dissolution of the House of Commons and early elections. This is further confirmation of how the Canadian electorate in general did not welcome a return to the polls less than two years after the last 2019 election. Also according to Abacus, in Quebec the Bloc Quebecois continues to grow and this also represents a wake-up call for the Liberals: historically the blocking advance in the polls preceding the elections corresponds to a decline in the consensus of the ruling party. In short, the political scenario in view of the vote begins to emerge with dynamics that could accompany us throughout the election campaign until the appointment at the polls on September 20.

The Liberal Party continues to enjoy a slight advantage both in percentage terms and in the projection of seats. At the same time, however, to win an absolute majority, it is necessary to reach the magic number of 170 deputies: if the numbers recorded by the latest polls were then to be translated into real votes during the elections, the majority government remains a chimera. At the same time, Erin O’Toole’s conservatives are growing, albeit with difficulty, while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP continues to experience the exact same difficulties as in 2019, a ballast that prevents the party from breaking through on the moderate electorate and that could penalize it at the polls.

The real risk is that on 21 September we will arrive at a scenario very similar to that produced by the vote two years ago: a minority government, without the necessary absolute majority in the Chamber. Which results in a high level of instability and risk of new early voting in no time.