TORONTO – The fourth wave of the pandemic? It has already begun. And it mainly affects the unvaccinated, even if – in some cases – those who have already received the vaccine get sick as well. This is what emerges from the latest data relating to infections: the daily count of Covid-19 cases in Ontario continues to fluctuate between 300 and 400 new infections per day and infectious disease experts warn that an increase in cases is expected in the next weeks.

In fact, provincial health officials today recorded 324 new cases of Covid-19 (and 3 deaths), almost equal to the 321 infections confirmed on Tuesday, but a substantial increase compared to the 139 infections reported just a week ago. Over the past week, the seven-day average has jumped from 199 cases last Wednesday to 332 cases today. The positivity rate is also growing: with 24,772 tests processed in the last 24 hours, Ontario reports a provincial positivity rate of 1.7%, up from 1.2 last week.

In the light of this latest data, Dr. Peter Jüni, head of the Ontario Science Table, told Cp24.com that the fourth wave of the pandemic has probably already started in mid-July. “When we were at the lowest point, which was around mid-July, the fourth wave started. Right now we have about a doubling time between 10 and 14 days, which means that the daily case count on average will double every 10-14 days … we just have to continue to be careful”, he added. However, Jüni does not believe that the increase in cases is cause for panic. “What we just need to be aware of – he said – is that this will be an unvaccinated pandemic”.

However, just today the Ontario Minister of Health, Christine Elliott, announced that among the new cases detected there were also 32 partially immunized people. “The vaccine is not perfect but it is really excellent – echoed Dr. Peter Jüni – but certainly the cases of coronavirus in vaccinated people are almost all mild. Those who are not vaccinated and those who are only partially immunized really run a lot of risk higher, 10 to 25 times higher, to end up in hospital or intensive care. That’s the real problem”.

Nearly 82% of people 12 years of age and older in Ontario have received a dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, and about 72.5% of people 12 years of age and older are fully immunized. But that’s not enough. “We must increase the pressure on the unvaccinated. We still have 25% of people between the ages of 50 and 60 who are not fully vaccinated – added Jüni – and who risk ending up in intensive care if they contract Covid-19”.

According to data from the Ministry of Health, there are still 108 patients admitted to intensive care in Ontario but the number is unchanged compared to last Wednesday: a figure that seems in line with what was declared by another expert, Dr. Alon Vaisman, specialist in Infectious diseases. Interviewed by Cp24.com, he was more optimistic than Jüni. “Ontario will likely see an increase in cases in the province, but we will not see a corresponding spike in hospitalizations and deaths”, Vaisman said. “We expect cases to increase and whether it starts now or next week or so, it’s hard to say, but it looks like it’s going in that direction”, he said. “But we don’t expect the number of hospitalizations to increase or the number of deaths to increase to the same extent as it did last time, in the third wave. And that’s the key thing to keep in mind”.

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