TORONTO – Ontario’s deficit for the period 2024-25 has shrunk by $3.2 billion: provincial Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy announced today in the government’s autumn economic statement, entitled “Building Ontario For You ”. 

“Inflation and our growing economy have brought unexpected tax revenues” said Minister Bethlenfalvy, noting that the deficit for 2024-25 now stands at $6.6 billion, down from $9.8 billion included in the 2024 budget. The Province now projects a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for 2025-26 and a small surplus of $900 million in 2026-27. That additional revenue comes from increased sales tax revenue due to inflation, as well as changes to capital gains tax rules by the federal government.

Bethlenfalvy said this is why the Ontario government can afford to give each taxpayer a one-time $200 check (as we wrote yesterday, here), which is expected to be mailed in early 2025. Those checks, intended to help Ontarians deal with the high cost of living, will cost $3 billion.

But there are also other measures aimed at reducing the cost of living. As announced earlier this week, the Province is extending temporary gas and fuel tax cuts until June 30, 2025: with the latest extension, each household will save an average of $380 since the measure was implemented in July 2022.

Bethlenfalvy then highlighted that the “One Fare” integration of transit fares between Municipalities is saving daily public transport users $1,600 per year – more than 90% of transit passengers in the Greater Greater Golden Horseshoe has access to the program.

Additionally, for Ontarians in need of fertility treatment, the Province will invest an additional $150 million over two years to expand the Ontario Fertility Program. The government says this will triple the number of people who will be able to receive government-funded IVF. 

The Province will then introduce a new tax credit in 2025 that would cover up to 25% of eligible treatment expenses for Ontario residents.

Overall, the Province is spending slightly more than projected in the budget, with total spending of $218.3 billion, compared to the $214.5 billion assumed.

In terms of growth, Ontario’s real GDP is forecast to shrink to 0.9% this year, from 1.4% in 2023, but is forecast to strengthen to 1.7% in 2025 and to 2.3% by 2026.

Job growth is also lower this year, coming in at 1.4%, down from 2.4% last year. This figure is expected to remain at or below 1.5% over the period 2025 to 2027.

On November 14, 2024, the government will launch consultations to help inform the 2025 Budget and hear from Ontarians on the most pressing challenges of today, such as making life more affordable, building more homes, schools, and creating good jobs for Ontario workers.

The full Ontario Government’s statement about the budget is here: Building Ontario for You