TORONTO – The improvement is there but the pandemic is still here. This is the summary of the latest projections of the Ontario Technical Scientific Table that invites the province to prepare for a moderate return of hospital admissions due to Covid-19 between now and May. 

“The Omicron wave has hit rock bottom and is starting to rise – says the Science Advisory Table – with the obligation to wear a mask ending in three days and the arrival of the sub-variant of Omicron BA.2 the occupation of hospital intensive care could increase within two months by a third to 300 patients”. At that point the total hospitalizations could return to about 800, a number however significantly lower than the peak of mid-January when the hospitalizations of people who tested positive for Covid-19 exceeded 4,100.

To make their predictions, leaders in the medical field took into account analyses done on wastewater that found – except in northern Ontario – an increase in the virus in all regions and test positivity samples among groups still eligible for PCR tests: here workplace screening programs showed an increase since mid-February. But, as the scholars of the Science Table warn, these are projections to be taken with a grain of salt.

“Uncertainty remains about the current levels of community immunity, the future change in behavior and the future spread of the BA.2 sub-variant which is even more contagious – said to Cp24 the director of the Science Table Peter Jüni – we do not pretend that the pandemic is over overnight and we drop all the masks like T-shirts on the beach, but we slowly continue to move towards greater freedom. We cautiously increase the number of contacts and always slowly stop using masks in various situations”.

In its latest projections, the Science Table said that not only restrictions on the availability of PCR tests, but also the fact that no positive rapid antigen test results are documented in Ontario, make it increasingly difficult to speculate what the spread of infection will be in the province.

“Only one in 10 infections is counted in provincial data – added Jüni – we estimate that from December 1, 2021 to now between 3 and 4.5 million Ontario residents have been infected with Covid-19”.

And it is precisely the future uncertainty, given the many variables, that invites caution to avoid the possibility of having to return to observe the health measures that we now think we have put in the attic. “If the infections increase dramatically, the province must be ready to reintroduce the mandatory use of masks, vaccination passports and continue to improve ventilation and air filtration in public spaces – added Jüni – the scenarios do not presuppose that people change their behavior in the blink of an eye”.

However, the administration of the third dose mitigated the impact of Omicron on hospitals. The Science Table study highlights how the intense campaign to administer the booster to all adults, which began at the end of December, had a significant effect on hospital admissions caused by Covid already the following month. “Without the third dose, there would have been more than 5,000 patients hospitalized during the peak of Omicron in the third week of January, 34% more than the total hospitalizations observed during the month – concluded Dr. Jüni – two doses in children, three in adults and four in long-term care homes and other groups of people at risk remain the best defense against the spread of infections of Covid-19”.