TORONTO – Crossfire on Erin O’Toole. In the last twenty-four hours, two other knots have emerged that will have to be dissolved and that directly concern the leader of the Conservative Party: the decision to make the vaccination obligation mandatory for MPs who want to enter the House of Commons and the analysis of the internal review of the party that will focus on the role of Maxime Bernier and his People’s Party in the defeat suffered last September 20 in the federal elections. 

Until now it was certain that all federal employees – with the exception of parliamentarians – who work in the House of Commons would have to be vaccinated, under penalty of unpaid suspension, antechamber of dismissal. The situation of the MPs, on the other hand, had remained in limbo, with the promise made by the government that a final decision would be taken within a short time. The decision has finally arrived: the Board of Internal Economy, the parliamentary body called to decide on the administrative rules that govern the Chamber, has established that by November 22 – the day on which the first session of the new legislature resulting from the vote of September 20 was scheduled – all deputies to enter parliament must be vaccinated.

The committee, chaired by House Speaker Anthony Rota and composed of members of all parties, has established that exceptions can be accepted only if accompanied by legitimate medical justification. In any case, Members excluded from the obligation for medical reasons must present an antigenic swab carried out within 72 hours in advance.

Now, O’Toole’s difficult situation is quite obvious. The Liberals and the NDP have placed the vaccination obligation on all their candidates in the last election, while the Bloc Quebecois, which has not imposed the vaccination obligation, has nevertheless announced that all its elected deputies are totally immunized. The Conservatives’ position on this issue still remains controversial. O’Toole did not impose any obligations and a large group of Tory MPs did not want to reveal their vaccination status.

Unvaccinated Conservative MPs will thus be forced to exercise their functions remotely, as had already happened during the most acute phases of the pandemic. For the Conservative leader, this is a further grain that undermines his authority within the party, an authority already questioned by some conservative exponents and by the general climate of discontent arising from the disappointing results of the last elections.

And here we come to the second knot to be untied, a skein really difficult to untangle. Last week, in fact, the internal review of the party began, an independent analysis entrusted to former Alberta Tory MP James Cumming. Starting today, the research will focus on the role played by the presence of a second right-wing party, the People’s Party, in the defeat at the polls. A preliminary analysis of data provided by Elections Canada had shown that Bernier’s party’s exploit at the polls – 840,993 votes but no elected deputies – had cost the Conservatives 21 deputies. A second, even more accurate analysis, presented in recent days by the University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, had highlighted a deeper impact: if there had not been a split between the Canadian right, the Conservatives would have won 25 more seats and won the election.

Cumming in his research will have to highlight how, during the 36 days of the official election campaign, the leader of his party tried to stem the hemorrhage of votes towards Bernier, who in the last six months has ridden the no vax wave and flirted with the various “covid-skeptic” and “anti-lockdown” movements. In Alberta, in particular, the shift of votes from the Conservative Party to the People’s Party was massive and this was blamed on O’Toole’s ambiguous positions on restrictions and mandatory vaccinations.

A new hot phase opens up among the Conservatives, which will have to culminate with the choice of the parliamentary group on the reconfirmation or possible removal of the leader.