TORONTO – The virus spreads.  Ontario today reported the highest number of Covid-19 cases in more than six months: 1,808. To count more in just 24 hours, we have to go back to last May 21, when the new infections in one day were 1,890. Not only that: the number of active cases has increased by about 50% in a week: seven days ago they were 8,351, now they are 12,666. 

Today’s surge in Ontario is impressive, considering that on Tuesday there were 1,429 new cases and 1,536 on Monday. It may have been the Omicron variant which, according to the Ontario Science Table, would be “responsible” with certainty for 30% of all cases in the province and, presumably (investigations are ongoing), for 80%.

The moving average of daily infections calculated over seven days is now equal to 1,514: a week ago it was 1,007. The positivity is also inevitably high: 44,000 test samples analyzed today, with a rate of 6%.

According to data held by the Ontario Ministry of Health, 625 of today’s cases involve unvaccinated people, 39 involve partially vaccinated people, 1,046 involve fully vaccinated people and the status of another 98 is unknown. The rapid increase in symptomatic infections in vaccinated people can be attributed, according to experts, to the decrease in immunity in a large part of the population that received the second vaccination four to six months ago and to the ability of the Omicron variant to evade the neutralizing effects of vaccines. But vaccination still appears to reduce the risk of hospitalization and ICU admission by 94 and 96%, respectively.

As for today’s case distribution, Toronto reported 343, its highest daily total since May 24. The York region reported 149 infections, Peel 132 and the Durham region 44. Halton recorded 112 new infections and Hamilton 86. On the hospital front, 357 people are hospitalized across Ontario, 28 fewer than on Tuesday. 154 people are in intensive care, eight fewer than on Tuesday, and 102 are breathing with the help of a ventilator.

Even higher are the numbers of Quebec which today reported 2,386 new infections (and 4 deaths) against 1,747 of the day before: it is necessary to go back until last January 8 to see more cases, 2,759. The positivity rate is now 5.8%. Active cases in Quebec are 15,974.

Admissions are also on the rise, with 16 more people admitted to hospitals (total: 309), but 2 fewer people in intensive care (total: 73).

As in Ontario, also in Quebec most of the newly infected are fully vaccinated: of the cases today, 983 concerned people not vaccinated or with a single dose that has not yet had an effect, others 86 with a single dose that has had an effect and more than half, 1,317, of people who received the second dose at least seven days ago.

The current daily case rate is now surpassing last year’s rate during this same period, but deaths and hospital admissions are still much lower: on the same date in 2020, in fact, Quebec had reported 1,897 new cases, but 43 virus deaths, with nearly 1,000 people in hospital. The vaccine “shield” seems, therefore, to produce a certain effect. Even if it is not quite what was hoped for: wiping out the virus.

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay