TORONTO – Like on a seesaw, until the very end: while there are just a few hours left until the (announced and presumed) entry into force of the American tariffs, the “oscillation” continues. Today, close to the eve of the deadline set for the new tariffs (which would be the day after tomorrow, March 4), Howard Lutnick – Secretary of Commerce of the President of the United States, Donald Trump – stated that there could be changes to the original 25% plan. 

In an interview on Fox News‘ “Sunday Morning Futures”, Lutnick said that there would, yes, be tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting from the announced date of March 4, but President Trump will determine at what levels.

The statement comes three days after the US president said his threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go ahead as planned. In a post late Thursday on his “Truth” social media platform, Trump reiterated that these tariffs are linked to drug (Fentanyl) and migrant flows into the United States from both countries.

However, Lutnick told Fox News‘s host Maria Bartiromo that Canada and Mexico have done a “reasonable job on the border. They’re both working hard” Lutnick said. “But ‘Fentanyl’ continues to enter this country and continues to kill our people. Anyway yes, Canada and Mexico have done a lot, so right now the situation is fluid”.

However, as also Global News underlines, numbers and facts tell a different story. In fact, according to Canadian federal data, less than 1% of the ‘Fentanyl’ entering the United States comes from Canada. Data from the US Customs and Border Protection agency also shows that seizures of ‘Fentanyl’ at the Canada-US border in January fell to the lowest levels since 2023, with less than 14 grams seized during the month. More than 19 kilograms of fentanyl from Canada was seized in the last fiscal year. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and various Canadian government ministers have highlighted that seizures of ‘Fentanyl’ at the border have decreased by 90% in the last month. Yet last Thursday, Trump reiterated that Canada has made no progress in stopping ‘Fentanyl,’ “at all.”

Anyway, it won’t just be Canada and Mexico that will have to deal with the new tariffs. Trump is in fact intent on further increasing tariffs on China from 10% to 20%, unless China puts an end to the trafficking of ‘Fentanyl’ into the United States. And then there is the unknown of Canadian lumber: there would in fact be further tariffs also coming on US imports of Canadian lumber. All that remains is to wait for the next “swing”…

The reactions in Europe e the Italian situation

ROME – Even in Europe there is a risk of a possible trade escalation with Donald Trump’s USA. The 25% customs tariffs, which are expected to hit – also in Europe – the automotive, steel and aluminum sectors, risk having a heavy impact on the economy of the Old Continent, with differentiated effects depending on the weight of each country’s exports to the United States.

The European Commission has defined the American decision as “unjustified”, warning that the imposition of duties could cause a fragmentation of the global economy with a loss of world GDP estimated at up to 7%, according to the EU Commissioner for Economy, Valdis Dombrovskis: “We consider them unjustified. It will be a problem for economic growth both in Europe and in the United States. And also in other countries. There is a risk of global economic fragmentation. There are IMF estimates that in the medium term the global GDP will fall by 7%. It is like losing the overall GDP of Germany and France. And then he adds: “It is a scenario that we want to avoid. We will continue to engage with the United States with a positive approach. But we are ready to react in a firm and proportionate way with counter-duties when necessary. We will defend our companies, our workers and consumers”, Dombrovskis declared to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.

French President Emmanuel Macron has also taken an extremely hard line, opening the introduction of “reciprocal tariffs” on steel and aluminum to protect European economies. Tensions have also worsened due to Trump’s recent statements, which defined the birth of the European Union as a “rip-off” for the United States, denouncing a trade deficit of 300 billion dollars. The spokesperson of the European Commission for Trade, Olof Gill, however, returned the accusations to the sender, recalling how the single European market has always favored American investments and trade: “Since its foundation the EU has been a godsend for the United States, creating an integrated market which has reduced costs for American exporters and harmonized regulations between member states”.

Within the European Union, however, reactions vary based on each country’s commercial dependence on the United States: Agathe Demarais, analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted that the most exposed economies are Austria, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Sweden. While Northern European countries call for a united response, France and Germany are pushing for retaliatory measures. The more cautious line is instead supported by the European People’s Party, which calls for avoiding a trade war.

As the Italian news portal Fanpage.it explains, Italy finds itself, among others, in a particularly delicate position, being the European country most exposed to American duties. According to Confindustria (the Italian association of the industrial sector), the US market represents 22.2% of Italian exports outside the EU, with sectors such as automotive, pharmaceutical, agri-food and fashion among the most affected: the president of Confindustria, Emanuele Orsini, expressed concern about the risk of a protectionist spiral, defining the imposition of duties as a “final blow for Italian industry. We need a bipartisan pact for the country and for Europe”, declared Orsini. An analysis by Confindustria has estimated that the burden on the Italian economy could reach up to 7 billion euros, particularly affecting the manufacturing sector and small and medium-sized enterprises. And also the president of Coldiretti (the Italian association of the has agrixcultural sector) raised the alarm for the agri-food sector, with a possible collapse in exports and an increase in costs for American consumers of up to 2 billion euros. That’s not the easiest situation for the Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, since she has always supported Donald Trump and, now, finds herself having to take a clear position to defend national interests.

In the pic above, a map of North America from Google Maps